News
In this week's summary:
- The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) remain present in Russia's Kursk Region, while Russian soldiers are advancing in the border area of the Sumy Region.
- Fighting continues in Russia's Belgorod Region in the vicinity of the border towns Popovka and Demidovka, with the Russian Aerospace Forces using heavy bombs.
- In the Kupiansk sector, Russian forces expanded their bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River north of Kupiansk.
- The Russian armed Forces staged a large-scale “motorized assault” south of Chasiv Yar, with the Ukrainian side claiming the destruction of 18 motorcycles.
- The pace of the Russian offensive in the Zaporizhzhia sector west of Orikhiv has “plummeted” after initial successes.
- A Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih hit an area near a playground, killing nine children.
- On-the-ground footage showing the aftermath of a HIMARS strike on helicopters at a Russian airfield in the Belgorod Region has been published.
- In the first three months of 2025, NATO countries announced the allocation of over $20 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
Situation at the front
In Russia's Kursk Region, Russian troops have advanced to the village of Guyevo — which remained under Ukrainian control even after the AFU retreated from Sudzha. The Russians have gained a foothold, but the fighting for the village continues, with the Russian advance hampered by the powerful presence of qualified Ukrainian UAV units and the activity of special operations units around the village. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have been using UAVs to drop munitions on Russian vehicles, though a Russian assault unit managed to plant a flag in the Ukrainian border village of Veselivka in the Sumy Region.
In Russia's Belgorod Region, fighting continues in the area of the Ukrainian incursion in the Krasnoyaruzhsky District. The AFU has managed to rotate and supply its troops at the line connecting Popovka and Demidovka. In an effort to prevent this, the Russian Aerospace Forces struck a dam near Popovka with a 3,000-kilogram FAB bomb fitted with a UMPK guidance kit (or, according to other sources, with an ODAB-1500 thermobaric bomb).
Small arms fighting continues in both villages, with both sides actively using artillery, aviation, and UAVs. Counterattacks by Russian assault groups of 10-15 fighters have not proven very successful. Russian self-styled “war correspondent” Vladimir Romanov reported the alleged encirclement of Ukrainians in Demidovka following a failed breakthrough attempt, but other sources do not corroborate his reports.
In the Kupiansk sector, the Russian Armed Forces advanced to Kindrashivka, north of Kupiansk, operating from a bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River. The author of the Ofitser ✙ Telegram channel, a Ukrainian military officer, wrote about the Russians' attempts to gain a foothold on the northern outskirts of Kindrashivka and move towards the center of the village, while Russian self-styled “war correspondent” Yuri Kotenok reported fighting for neighboring Mala Shapkivka. Later, as Ofitser ✙ reported, the situation in the vicinity of Kindrashivka stabilized.
In the Bakhmut sector, the situation for Russian forces near Chasiv Yar is “unfavorable”: the Defense Forces of Ukraine are pulling up reserves and armored vehicles and amping up UAV operations. Russian pro-war Telegram channel Rybar writes that Ukrainian counterattacks, including with the use of armored vehicles, have already begun. Rybar predicts that their main target will be Chasiv Yar but does not rule out a strike north of the town. Meanwhile, south of Chasiv Yar, the 5th Separate Assault Brigade repelled a major Russian “motorized assault,” claiming the destruction of 18 motorcycles, three armored fighting vehicles, and two personnel carriers.
In the South Donetsk sector near Andriivka, the Defense Forces of Ukraine defeated a large Russian motorized column. The AFU General Staff reported the destruction of seven out of 12 affected vehicles. According to DeepState, two more attacks unfolded within four hours. These were also repelled, with a total of 17 vehicles affected.
In the Zaporizhzhia sector, Russian “war correspondent” Kotenok extolls the successes of the Russian Armed Forces along the entire “arc” from Shcherbaky to Kamianske. The Russian forces also entered Lobkove but have yet to secure a firm foothold there. In addition, DeepState reports the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the vicinity of Kamianske. Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets points out that the pace of the Russian offensive in this area has “plummeted” after initial successes.
In March 2025, Russia's territorial progress in Ukraine slumped to its lowest level since the summer of 2024, according to DeepState analysis. The Russian Armed Forces have occupied 133 square kilometers in the past month, compared to 115 square kilometers in June 2024. DeepState estimates based on the data of the AFU General Staff also suggest that the effectiveness of Russian attacks in the area assigned to Ukraine's Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Group has seen a manifold drop in recent months: whereas this past November the General Staff recorded an average of 7.1 assaults for each newly occupied square kilometer, in March the average number of attacks required to take one additional unit of territory spiked to 36.4.
Mutual strikes and sabotage
On the night of Apr. 1, for the first time in 2025, no Shahed-type UAV launches on Ukrainian territory were recorded (though the AFU Air Force reported intercepting both of the Kh-59/Kh-69 guided missiles Russia launched that night). Helicopterpilot, a Telegram channel close to Russian army aviation, attributed this anomaly to weather conditions, which seems plausible given that the raids continued on other days. The AFU reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) downing 338 Shahed-type and other UAVs out of the 605 Russia launched during the week. Another 216 UAVs were “radar lost” under the influence of electronic warfare tools.
The Shahed Tracker OSINT project summarized statistics on the use of Shaheds and other unidentified types of UAVs in March 2025. A record 4,198 UAVs were launched during the 31 days of March. Of these, 2,435 were shot down, 1,386 were landed with the help of electronic warfare tools or turned out to be decoys, and 377 drones reached their targets.
The most deadly Russian strike on civilian infrastructure was the ballistic missile attack on Kryvyi Rih on Apr. 4, with the missile landing near a children's playground in a residential area. According to preliminary reports, 18 civilians, including nine children, were killed and 61 others, including 12 children, were injured. Five apartment buildings were damaged.
The Russian Ministry of Defense, for its part, reported the defeat of 322 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs over the territory of Russia and the occupied Crimean peninsula. During the week, the ministry also regularly reported on Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure facilities in Russia and the occupied territories of Ukraine, without, however, providing any objective monitoring data.
According to CIT volunteers' calculations (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), between 20:00 on March 27 and 20:00 on April 3, shelling of civilian infrastructure on both sides of the front killed at least 28 civilians and injured 348 others. In total, at least 207 civilians were killed in March, and at least 1,359 others sustained injuries varying in severity.
Losses
Russian losses during the three years of full-scale war in Ukraine have reached 900,000 people, with 250,000 killed, a NATO official said in Brussels during a meeting of foreign ministers of the alliance member states.
The Dosye Shpiona Telegram channel posted a video with objective verification of the results of a HIMARS strike on Russian helicopters in the Belgorod Region. Footage shows damage to Mi-28NM and Mi-8AMTSh helicopters (for our part, we note that the Ukrainian side's identification of the helicopters as Ka-52 is inaccurate). Russian pro-war channel Fighterbomber states that all but one Mi-8 helicopter eventually left the frontline airfield on their own, with the remaining Mi-8 likely to be stripped for parts.
Weapons and military vehicles
Regular U.S. flights to Rzeszów, Poland, the largest transit hub for military supplies to the AFU, have resumed. Earlier we wrote that several U.S. military logistics units had left the facility, causing delays in the delivery of decommissioned Australian Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
Also during the week, the following major military aid packages to Ukraine became public:
- The Swedish government announced the largest military aid package for Ukraine to the tune of $1.6 billion, of which $912 million will be used for purchases from the Swedish defense industry, $46 million will be received as guarantees by Swedish defense companies willing to cooperate with Ukraine, and another $465 million is allocated for contracts for the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.
- The Danish government announced a $1 billion military aid package to be delivered to Ukraine through 2027, including $210 million for the purchase of artillery and ammunition through other countries, $300 million to be invested in Ukraine's domestic arms production, and the remaining funds to be allocated for air defense systems, drones, IT infrastructure support, and purchases under the Danish model.
- The Dutch government is set to allocate €500 million to Ukraine for the Drone Line project.
In the first three months of 2025, NATO countries promised to provide Ukraine with $21.6 billion in military aid, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said.
The following creations of Russian frontline and garage craftsmen were seen in action:
- A Chinese Desertcross 1000-3 all-terrain vehicle disguised as a Russian Tiger armored vehicle
- Homemade chemical munitions to be dropped from UAVs
- A T-80 tank and a BTR-82A armored personnel carrier with extensive makeshift armor
- A Mad Max-style buggy courtesy of Rosatom.